Wednesday, 25 December 2024

Maharashtra's lower court a brief look at the challenges that this digital push faces.



 In September 2023, Maharashtra's lower court will require electronic filing to improve convenience and speed during court proceedings.

The Indian judiciary, in its quest for modernisation has adopted digital transformation through the introduction of e-filing. This initiative is a major shift that aims to improve accessibility and reduce the backlog of cases in Indian courts. This digital revolution, however, has faced several challenges which have hindered its full success.


In September 2023, electronic filing became mandatory for Maharashtra lower courts in order to improve convenience, speed, and responsiveness during court proceedings. The system is still heavily reliant on physical files due to several glitches.


The e-filing has increased efficiency, reducing paperwork while allowing remote submissions. However, the transition was not seamless. We as lawyers face various issues during e-filing like technical glitches, server outage, difficulty in payment of court fee challans, delays in verification/checking at court etc.," says advocate Jitendra Sawant, a criminal defence lawyer practising in Pune.


"Most importantly the entire e-filing system cannot run without internet. This is a major problem for courts and their premises. Extreme network and internet problems make it difficult to submit certain applications while hearings are in progress. There is also limited technical support and the majority of court staff are not trained to resolve the problems that lawyers face on a regular basis," says Sawant.


As of August 2024, Phase 3 of the E-Courts Mission Mode Project was implemented, and 49,58.821 cases were filed electronically. There are also 1,365 eSewa kendras located in district courts, which will ensure that this technology-based access to justice is improved. E-Sewa Kendras are designed to help bridge the digital gap by giving citizens access to judicial service, particularly those without convenient access to technology.


"E-filing is a game changer for rural areas and businesses with limited resources. It has broken down the barriers that made justice appear distant. Imagine a Maharashtra farmer who is involved in a land dispute. This farmer, with the help of eSewa kendras and eFiling, can now file his case online and track hearing dates by text message. He may also be able attend virtual hearings if necessary. It saves both time and money, and gives them direct access to the justice system that they previously thought was out of their reach.


It has been argued that the push for digitalisation of the filing system is more important than questions about ethics, digital literacy and having a system which can resist cyber attacks without falling victim to malware. Academic research and a collaborative approach can help in the digital transformation. This process involves analysing data protection, evaluating digital literacy among stakeholders, identifying deficiencies in infrastructure, scrutinising algorithmic biased in AI-driven tools, and addressing cybersecurity risks," said Dr Shaista Pehrzada, an associate professor at Ajeenkya DY Patil University in Pune.


By prioritising this area, a collaborative strategy like this can help prevent damage to court systems and, in return, create a more equitable and productive digital justice frame to reduce the gap that exists between theoretical ideals (like Wikipedia's open access style) and practical reality (like Delima’s structured legal database)." Adds Dr Peerzada.


In India, several law schools have started to incorporate e-filing into their curriculum. This initiative is designed to make sure that future lawyers have the skills necessary to use these systems, as they continue evolving and becoming more efficient.


We have included modules on e-filing, as well as other practical procedures in our academic curriculum. Sakshi Kirad is a law student from ILS Law College, Pune. She says that internships incorporating such systems have been given a lot of attention in our field.

Baby John movie review - bloated and incoherent Varun Dhawan's film is among the worst 2024.



 Baby John Movie Review and Rating: The problem with this Atlee-produced film, a remake Vijay’s 2016 hit Theri with which Varun gets his big fat South Masala film, is that not much sticks.

Baby John Review & Rating In the late stages of the film, Rajpal Yadav, who plays the sidekick, delivers the best line in Baby John. Comedy is serious business.


The only time I heard laughter was in the preview. This is the type of punchline masala movies use in order to get the audience laughing. It says a lot about Baby John, a punishingly long 164-minute film, that the comic gets more taalis for his dialogue than the hero’s 'taqia Kalaam': 'par toh pehli aaya'.


You feel like telling the lead actor Varun dhawan that he shouldn't have bothered to watch this film. He is not suited for it. His delivery is only suitable for low-fi comedy. Baby John is the clear winner of the worst movie of 2024. This was a year in which Bollywood's big stars tanked.


Making masala films is a serious business, as you can see from the fact that , Pushpa 2,, still has the audience hooked. The second one is longer but the hero has a natural feel to him, the set pieces have a rhythm, and Sukumar and Allu Arjun throw everything at us and some of it sticks.


The problem with Baby John, the remake of Vijay’s 2016 hit Theri with which Varun gets his big fat South Masala film, is that not much sticks. The novelty factor is what makes a good masala different from a bad one. Baby John looks like it was thrown together: why is there so much fascination with containers and ships, and heroes hanging upside-down? Baby John is the next Pushpa.


Khushi's (Zyanna) relationship with Baby John (Vaun) is reminiscent of Shah Rukh Khan, who starred in Jawan as a father and daughter duo. When these two become involved with an evil flesh-trading group, led by Babbar Sher's (Jackie Shroff), the calm pace of Alappuzha is disturbed. It's true, that is his name. It's obvious that there's a story behind the regular joe Baby John, who wore a lungi, and had a mother (Sheeba Chhadha, Bollywood’s new favorite mommy) as well as a sweetheart in Keerthy Suresh.


All those plot points, however, are just an excuse for Baby John, aka DCP Satya Varma, to start a savage war against the villains using anything and everything that can be turned into a weapon. The director, who worked with Atlee on the film, throws as many fight scenes as he can in as many places as he finds. The ugliness is displayed in many ways: human bodies are burned, trampled on, body parts are scattered, blood spurts. Who cares if the audience becomes desensitised to it?


You can watch Jackie Shroff in his first villainous role in Southern cinema, the 2010 Aranya Kaandam. He slits throats and shakes his straggly hair, all while wearing a thick layer of haldi (don't ask us why) on his face. A little girl who is aware that he has done something horrible calls him "daadu". Yes, that's right. How did she know? We're not even asking. No, this film does not protect children.


Keerthy Suresh has a vital presence but zero connection with Dhawan; Gabbi, who plays a teacher-with-a-secret, gets just enough screen time to justify her presence. Sanya Malhotra appears and disappears in a blink and miss part.


Varun Dhawan channels his inner Salman khan to the fullest (shirts and vests are removed here and there) and shares a climactic scene with the latter in a very 'Pathan style'. You instantly know two things. There will be more where this came from. Groan.


This is how the year has ended. What will Bollywood bring us in 2025? I won't be holding my breath.

GST applicable only on used car sales with positive margin; no tax applies on individual-to-individual sales margin



Government sources indicate that only "registered" people -- typically businesses involved with buying and selling used cars -- will be held liable for Goods and Services Tax on sales of old and used cars that generate profits, though only if their profits surpass $200.


GST applies when there is a positive margin or when the sale price exceeds acquisition costs. For vehicles claimed under depreciation, depreciation-adjusted value will be considered cost. Sources say in all other instances, price paid by seller for vehicle is taken as acquisition cost.


Individuals selling used vehicles directly to other individuals do not incur GST when selling it.


Updated on: December 24, 2024 22:56 (IST).


There was some ambiguity on whether GST would apply in cases where margin on used vehicle sales was negative and whether individual-to-individual used car transactions would also incur tax. (Express File Image).


GST only applies if there is a positive margin or when the sale price exceeds acquisition cost. For vehicles claimed for depreciation, depreciation-adjusted value will be used as the acquisition cost; sources indicate that in all other cases the selling price for the vehicle represents its true acquisition cost.


Individuals selling used vehicles to another individual do not owe GST.


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Last week, the GST Council met and decided that all used vehicles (including electric) sold are to be subject to one 18% tax rate. Prior to this decision, only petrol/diesel/LPG vehicles sold with 18% GST rates while all other types were charged only 12% - however this decision by GST Council sought to align GST rates across all forms of used vehicle sales including electric ones.


Previously, this decision had caused confusion within certain sectors regarding whether GST would apply in instances of negative margin used car sales and whether individual-to-individual car transactions would also incur taxes.


GST is due only if a registered person claims depreciation under the Income Tax Act...the GST payable only represents margins. Margin refers to the difference between consideration received for providing goods and their depreciated values on the date they were supplied - according to one source, if this margin is negative no GST will be payable.


GST is only due on the value that represents a seller's margin - that is, the difference between selling price and purchasing price - according to one source. When this margin is negative no GST will be applicable.


Government sources explained that in certain GST scenarios, no GST would apply. If for example an individual selling their used car for Rs 10 lakh when its original cost was Rs 20 lakh but depreciation claims totalled 8 lakh, no GST would be applicable as its value after deducting depreciation would fall to Rs 12 lakh, leading to a margin of negative Rs 2 lakh and thus exempting them from GST liability.


Rather, 18% GST would apply on any difference of Rs 3 lakh even though its original selling cost of Rs 20 lakh had decreased during its depreciated lifecycle.


Source: As an illustration of GST liability, consider an old vehicle sold at Rs 10 lakh to someone who paid Rs 12 lakh; no GST will be due as the margin is negative in this instance. In contrast, if its purchase price was Rs 20 lakh but its selling price was 22 lakh then GST must be payable on its margin, which amounts to Rs 2 lakh in this instance.

Delhi CM Atishi: Strict action against officers who disown government schemes



Atishi, the Delhi Chief Minister, said that on Wednesday strict administrative actions will be taken against the two officers who issued public notices disowning the registration process initiated by her and the former chief minister Arvind Kejriwal in two schemes announced by Aam Aadmi Party. The officers are the joint director of Department of Woman and Child Development and special secretary of Health and Family Welfare Department.


In a public notice published on Wednesday, the officers called both the Mukhyamantri Mahila Samman Yojana (which aims to give Rs 2100 to women who do not pay taxes) and the Sanjeevani Yojana (which provides free treatment in government hospitals as well as in private ones to people over 60 years old), "fraudulent".


Atishi, speaking at a press event held by the AAP, said that "the notices published today in newspapers were completely false." BJP put pressure on the officers, and they issued a false notice to the public because they were shocked by their response. These officers will face strict administrative action."


Updated: December 25, 2024 14:47 IST


clock_logo5 Min Read





Delhi Chief Minister Atishi. (File)

Atishi, the Delhi Chief Minister, said that on Wednesday strict administrative actions will be taken against the two officers who released public notices disowning the registration process initiated by her and the former chief minister Arvind Kejriwal in two schemes announced by Aam Aadmi Party. The officers are the joint director of Department of Woman and Child Development and special secretary of Health and Family Welfare Department.


In a public notice published on Wednesday, the officers called both the Mukhyamantri Mahila Samman Yojana (which aims to give Rs 2100 to women who do not pay taxes) and the Sanjeevani Yojana (which provides free treatment in government hospitals as well as in private ones to people over 60 years old), "fraudulent".


Atishi, speaking at a press event held by the AAP, said that "the notices published today in newspapers were completely false." BJP put pressure on the officers, and they issued a false notice to the public because they were shocked by their response. These officers will face strict administrative action."


Atishi pointed to a copy the Cabinet's approval of Mahila Saman Yojana and said: "This is the cabinet notification after it approved the Rs 1,000 allowance for women under Mahila Sanman Yojana...The notification clearly states Rs 1,000. The Delhi Police will investigate these officers and take strict action against them for publishing such a false public notice.


AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal was also present at the press conference and said that the BJP has a fear of the public due to their positive response to AAP schemes and door-to-door campaigning. He said that the BJP does not have a chief-ministerial candidate or an agenda to share with the public in advance of the upcoming election.


"We know the BJP's plot to obstruct work in Delhi by using the Lieutenant Governor, bureaucrats and other schemes. We did not let them impede our work. They devised a scheme and arrested us all. The BJP can't show off their time in Delhi. Seven MPs have served the BJP in the last ten years but they have not shown any achievements. He said they lack a candidate for chief minister and a clearly defined agenda.


"The AAP runs a positive campaign." We are sharing our accomplishments from the past ten years, and we ask for votes on the basis of our work. Our opponents, on the other hand, resort to insults. We announced recently a new program that provides an allowance of Rs 2100. This follows the cabinet's approval of a Rs 1000 allowance. If we come back to power, I said we would increase the amount to Rs. 2,100. We also introduced the Sanjeevani Yojana and people are eagerly filling out forms. The people seem to be happy about it and want us back to power. "This is why the BJP feels threatened," he said.


He claimed that investigation agencies, such as the Central Bureau of Investigations (CBI) or the Enforcement Directorate, would conduct raids on all senior AAP officials, including CM Atishi to distract them away from the election campaign.


"We have learned from our reliable sources that ED, CBI and other agencies met and plan to falsely accuse Atishi of a crime involving the Transport Department. He said that the BJP was conspiring to undermine the scheme of free commuting for women.


Kejriwal alleged also that former BJP Mp Parvesh Singh was distributing money to people before the elections.


Atishi said that the BJP could create any false case, but that the people of Delhi were observing and would respond during the upcoming election.


Public notices about Delhi Govt Schemes

Two departments of the Delhi Government published public notices both in Hindi and English newspapers. The situation highlighted once again the fragile relationship between Delhi's bureaucracy, and its elected government. The services department is now under the Lieutenant Governor's control after an amendment was made to the Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi Act.


A joint director of the Department of Women and Child Development published a public notice in newspapers about the Rs 2,100 promised under Mahila Samman Yojana. The notice stated, ""..., a political party claims to be able to pay Rs 2,100 a month to eligible individuals under the Mukhyamantri Mahila Samman Yojna... No such scheme has yet been notified in Delhi... When such a scheme becomes official, the Department of Women and Child Development launches a


The statement added: "The public is hereby warned and asked not to believe such promises about a nonexistent scheme as they are misleading and lacking any authority ...,".


The second notice by the Special Secretary of the Health and Family Welfare Department also called the promises false, and added that people had started to visit government hospitals and offices in order to ask about the scheme.

Monday, 23 December 2024

What is Sriram Krishnan? Donald Trump recently named Sriram Krishnan, an Indian-American investor and venture capitalist, to serve as his senior AI policy advisor.

 



Mr. Trump announced that Sriram would become Senior Policy Advisor for Artificial Intelligence within the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.


Mr. Krishnan will work in close conjunction with David Sacks, former PayPal COO who Trump appointed to oversee White House policy related to AI and Crypto.


Sriram will collaborate closely with David Sacks to ensure America maintains its leadership in artificial intelligence (AI). He'll assist with shaping and coordinating AI policies across government as well as working closely with President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology.


Mr. Krishnan may not be new to Silicon Valley, but his presence has grown increasingly notable since Elon Musk asked this Indian-American engineer - temporarily run Twitter until its full acquisition by another billionaire - in 2022.


Mr. Krishnan hails from Chennai in India. Throughout his career he has established himself as an influential strategist and builder in Silicon Valley. Involved with tech titans such as Facebook (now Meta), Twitter and Snap, Mr. Krishnan played a critical role in developing Facebook Audience Network - Google AdWords competitor; leading product initiatives aimed at increasing user engagement when first working at Twitter; instrumental in creating Facebook Audience Network that rivals it; responsible for product initiatives designed to increase user engagement when first joining Twitter;


As a general partner at Andreessen Horowitz - one of Silicon Valley's premier venture firms - Mr. Krishnan brought operational experience from prior roles before leading efforts at Andreessen Horowitz's London office to advance new technologies like AI and cryptocurrency that are shaping tech's future. Mr. Krishnan led efforts at expanding internationally through opening an a16z office outside the US for expansion purposes.


Krishnan's Views on AI

Mr. Krishnan's appointment as senior AI advisor is of critical significance given its growing impact on geopolitics and global competitiveness as well as economic development. At A16z, his work closely aligns with emerging trends such as advancements in generative AI technology as well as personalized assistant AI services.


Mr. Krishnan frequently spoke as a venture investor on AI's power to transform industries, noting its potential impact in his speeches: quoting him when discussing AI as part of their core capability rather than just as an add-on tool "companies that embrace AI as an essential means will define the next decade".


As the US strives to become a global leader in AI, Krishnan's knowledge will be essential. Together with AI and Crypto expert David Sacks, he will serve as an advisor on AI policy issues within the Trump administration. Together they'll work on ways to strike an optimal balance between innovation and regulation - an ongoing challenge facing United States AI businesses.


What Are Critics Saying about Trump's AI Policy? Experts and commentators from the tech community have responded differently to Krishnan's appointment as Senior AI Advisor for AI Policy by President Trump, with some people being worried by its approach towards deregulation of AI technology.


Some have identified potential conflicts of interests in the involvement of tech industry leaders like Mr. Krishnan and Sacks in AI policy decisions. Some observers worry that Mr. Krishnan with his background at Microsoft, Twitter and Meta could become a candidate for positions which prioritize large tech firms over public interests.


The Financial Times notes that people such as David Sacks who were appointed AI and Crypto Czar have histories "often drawing criticism." This suggests that Krishnan may also come under close scrutiny.


Concerns also exist regarding the impact of AI policies implemented by government on safety and ethics standards. Both major political parties support AI development; however, implementation remains key. Critics claim rapid AI development may result in unintended side-effects such as bias or ethical dilemmas without adequate safeguards being put in place to mitigate them.


Summary: Although Sriram Krishnan brings extensive industry experience to his administration role, critics remain concerned over possible deregulation, bias against industry players and inadequacy of safety measures within an industry as rapidly transforming as artificial intelligence.

What will be the key challenges and triggers for the Indian stock markets in 2025?





Due to its strong macroeconomic foundations, the Indian stock market is poised for healthy growth on a medium-to-long term. Experts believe that the sustainability of growth, the revival of corporate earnings and government policies, as well as global factors such a geopolitical struggle, US Fed interest rates trajectory, and Donald Trump’s tariff policies, will determine the market trends for 2025.


Indian Stock Market Benchmark Nifty Fifty is expected to end 2024 with modest gains. This index has risen by 9 percent so far this year. The index gained 20 percent last year.


The Indian market could see modest gains in the year ahead, unless corporate earnings and the economy show a significant rebound.


The market will be triggered by "sustained economic growth and strong corporate earnings. Measures announced in the budget for next year and the direction of taxation." Geopolitical stability and interest rate decisions made by the major central banks will play a crucial role. Trilok Agarwal said that Donald Trump's tariffs and taxes will alter the dynamics of supply chains.


The risk of a global economic recession and inflationary forces could also affect the market's sentiment. A dynamic relationship between China and the US may also cause volatility. "Individual factors such as regulatory uncertainty and currency fluctuations due to the US dollar's exchange rate against emerging market currencies could affect the direction of foreign investments in India," stated Agarwal.


The Indian stock market 2025: Key challenges

The Indian stock exchange faces a number of challenges, including a slowdown in the global economy and inflated valuations.


Even though earnings for corporations have been declining in recent quarters, there are still pockets of the Indian Stock Market that remain highly valued.


"The key trigger for FY2025 is a growth revival in consumption and investment." Amit Ganatra is the Head of Equities at Invesco Mutual fund. He said that key challenges are a weak growth environment globally and high valuations.


Another key risk to the Indian stock exchange is the growing comfort level of domestic investors in equities.


"While the US has been accused of being an exception, India's growth trajectory is structurally strong because it has better macroeconomic fundamentals. (current account deficits, fiscal deficits, inflation). The growing confidence of domestic investors in equities, particularly when there is no down year, as 'risk free' assets poses a threat. Investors must remain vigilant and avoid overlooking potential risks. This is what S Naren, ED & CIO of ICICI Prudential AMC said.


Naren also highlighted the fact that small and midcap stocks have consistently outperformed large-caps over the past few years despite doubts about their valuations. Naren noted that the FII's selling of large-cap stocks has contributed to this trend. However, small and midcaps are still overvalued, and have yet to correct themselves.


What should Indian investors be doing?

Investors are advised to focus on the long-term fundamentals, and pay attention to market sentiment and valuations. Diversifying portfolios is also recommended to reduce risk.


Multi-asset strategies offer a great way to manage risk and diversify. "Hybrid funds that offer exposure to equities and debt as well as commodities such gold provide a balanced asset allocation. This makes them an attractive option for investors who want to diversify their assets across asset classes," Naren explained.


Experts see potential in the IT, FMCG, and infrastructure sectors.


Deepak RAMARAJU, Senior fund manager at Shriram AMC is optimistic about the FMCG industry due to its attractive valuation.


Ramaraju stated that the IT sector could also perform well in 2025, as discretionary spending increases. This is provided Donald Trump doesn't impose unexpected tariffs.


Ramaraju said that banks may also see a recovery following the interest rate cut, which could result in an increase in credit growth.

Saturday, 21 December 2024

India is the second largest consumer of polished diamonds in the world after US



De Beers Group announced a strategic partnership with Tanishq. Tanishq is one of India's leading jewellery brands. The goal was to help Indian consumers understand the rarity and value of natural diamonds, as well as the opportunities that are growing in the Indian market.

Amit Pratihari said that India was the second-largest market in the world for polished diamonds and jewelry, after the United States, but behind China. Prathihari, the Managing Director of De Beers India, was in Surat on Saturday to announce a partnership between De Beers and Tanishq to boost India's market for natural diamond jewellery.


This event is significant at a moment when the diamond industry in Surat, as well as other factors, is experiencing a slump following the Russia- Ukraine conflict.


De Beers Group (a global leader in the diamond industry) and Tanishq (one of India's leading jewellery brands) announced a strategic partnership to help Indian consumers learn more about the "rareness and preciousness" of natural gemstones, as well as the opportunities that are growing in the Indian marketplace.


Prathihari told reporters that the diamond jewellery market in the world was worth 89 billion US dollars. India is the world's second-largest market for polished diamonds and diamond-studded jewelry, followed by China and the Middle East.


Parathihari stated that there is a fluctuation of prices in rough diamonds. This is due to the mid-stream processes. The economic situation around the world is what determines the price. The USA market is not growing and China is unstable. Price fluctuation is to accommodate our sight holders, through whom the diamonds reach the local market. We are now seeing double-digit growth in the US after the US elections. China used to be the second-largest market for diamonds. However, after the pandemic it experienced a decline and is slowly recovering. By 2025, there will be a good market."


He added that "India is the world's second largest diamond consumer market." India's domestic gems and jewelry market is estimated to be worth 85 billion dollars and is expected reach 120 billion dollars by 2030. India's economy currently has a value of 3.5 trillion dollars and is expected to grow to 7.9 trillion by 2030. The Indian market has seen a major growth in desirable products, including the gems and jewelry industry.


Prathihari stated that the partnership would create awareness among customers about the value of natural diamonds, how they are created, how it is passed to different hands, and how its uniqueness and craftsmanship can be seen.


Tanishq's Chief Marketing Officer Pelki Tshering added, "We have come to celebrate the unconditional love and trust shown by 1,06 325 Surat families. We are honored to be a part their most treasured memories and to have decorated their brides over the years. We have just launched our latest diamond jewelry collection, 'Unbound.' Tanishq Unbound is more than a collection. It's a tribute to the woman who wears it. "With collections such as 'Unbound,' and our collaborations with De Beers Group we hope to celebrate and honor the individuality of each woman today and in generations to come."

Duty hikes likely due to surge in imports of steel; DGTR announces anti-dumping investigation



The rating agency ICRA said that due to the increase in imports, the capacity utilization of the domestic steel industry in 2024-25 may fall below 80 percent for the first time since four years.

According to a source familiar with the situation, due to the surge in imports of steel from China and other countries, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry will likely recommend an increase in the duty on steel.


In a Friday notification, the Directorate General of Trade Remedies initiated an investigation on anti-dumping into certain steel imports in India.


There are concerns over the impact a steel tariff hike would have on downstream industries, but there is also a massive amount of capacity in China. The person stated that a recommendation for a steel duty was likely because several Western countries impose duties on Chinese steel and this steel could be diverted to India.


The Ministry of Steel asked the Ministry of Commerce for a 25% duty on steel. It cited that imports of steel from China increased by 80 percent to 1.61 millions tonnes between January and the end of July of this year compared to the 0.9 million tons during the same time period last year. Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises have warned, however, that a 25 per cent duty on steel products will negatively affect 8 lakh MSMEs.


According to the DGTR notice, the Indian Steel Association, which includes ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India Limited (AMNS Khopoli Limited), JSW Steel Limited (JSW Steel Coated Products Limited), Bhushan Power & Steel Limited and Jindal Steel and Power Limited as well as the Steel Authority of India Limited is requesting the imposition of a "safeguard duty" on the imports of Non-Alloy and Alloy Steel Flat Products into India.


The applicant claims that imports have increased in volume in a sudden, abrupt, and significant manner, causing significant damage to the Indian domestic industry. The applicant also alleges that imports occurred at such high quantities and in such circumstances as they caused or threatened to cause serious harm to the domestic industry", DGTR stated in a notification.


ISA argued, that since the United States of America imposed a 25% duty under Section 232 of its Trade Expansion Act of 1962, multiple countries have taken trade remedy measures to combat steel imports. Evidence indicates that between 2019 and 2023, 129 trade remedies measures were imposed against steel products by different countries.


The slowing of demand in these countries is one reason for the existence of significant surplus capacity in China, Japan and South Korea. China's domestic policy measures have resulted in a decrease in consumption of steel long products that are used primarily in the real estate industry. Chinese steel companies have shifted a large percentage of production from long to flat products in order to mitigate the decline in consumption. These flat products are now exported on global markets.


GTRI, a think tank, argues that the main reason for imports is due to a gap between production and consumption of steel.


According to official statistics, India produced 139.15 MT of steel in FY 2024. It exported 7.5MT and consumed 136.29MT. Imports were necessary to meet the domestic demand, as there was little left over. Steel imports are only 6 percent of the domestic production and are mainly for large steel companies. They consist of 50 percent raw materials, such as scrap steel, and 40 percent specialized products that cannot be produced locally.


The ISA also stated that the Asean region will significantly increase its crude-steel production capacity. Approximately 75 percent of this expansion is due to Chinese investments. ASEAN is the top region for Chinese steel companies to invest across borders. They are investing heavily in overseas steel projects. ISA stated that the capacity of ASEAN will likely exceed regional steel demand by a wide margin.


ICRA, a rating agency, had predicted that domestic steel capacity utilization in 2024-25 would fall below 80 percent for the first four-year period due to the increase in imports. ICRA forecast that, along with record expansion plans, industry capacity utilisation would fall from 85 percent in 2023-24, to an estimated 78% in the current fiscal, the lowest level since four years.

Monday, 16 December 2024

Global Trade Research Initiative: India should diversify IT-exports to navigate the Trump-led trade age



 India and the US were at odds over data localisation during Donald Trump's initial term.

India should diversify IT exports in order to reduce the risk of tariffs under Donald Trump, as a large portion of India's IT revenue is derived from the United States. This was stated by Global Trade Research Initiative on Sunday.


India's software exports reached $205 billion by 2023-24. According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s annual survey on computer-software and information technology enabled services (ITES) exported, 54% of these exports were from the US, with Europe coming in second at 31%.


Trump has also taken several measures during his first term to limit immigration. Trump also made a key promise in his polls to curb immigration.


GTRI said that India must also strengthen its data policies and resist pressures from outside to freely share data. It should also continue to reject the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity trade pillar which could limit India's digital and labour policy.


During Trump’s first term, the US and India were at odds over the localisation of data. India refused to change its stance regarding data localisation when it came to plurilateral agreements with the WTO, and instead tightened its regulations. In April 2018, for example, the RBI required that payment system providers such as Mastercard, Visa and American Express store Indian residents' payments data in India.


India's draft policy on e-commerce, which contains robust provisions for localisation, is still stalled. This could be due to US pressure.


The report highlighted that other countries, such as Mexico, Canada and the ASEAN group, benefited more than India from the US-China Trade War. GTRI stated that India needs to strengthen its supply chains at home, produce key intermediates in order to reduce reliance upon China, improve cost efficiency, and make it easier to do business. This will help to increase export competitiveness.


GTRI stated that India's trade landscape is changing as Donald Trump returns to the US presidency. Trump's plans to impose new tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China could be beneficial for India.


India also gained significantly. US imports of Indian goods increased by $36,8 billion in this time period, from $50.5 billion up to $87.3 billion. India was the 6th biggest contributor to the increase in US imports, according to the report.


The key drivers of India's growth in exports were smartphones and telecom equipment. They contributed $6.2 billion (17.2% of the total), followed by medicines ($4.5 billion (12.4%), petroleum oil at $2.5 billion (6.8%), and solar panels at $1.9 billion (5.3%). Together, gold jewellery and lab-grown stones added $2.3 billion.

Wheat and edible oils are now the main inflation concerns



In November, the retail food inflation rate dipped to 9.04% from 10.87% in October.


Wheat and edible oil remain the two commodities that are most concerning.


The wholesale price of wheat at Delhi's Najafgarh Market is currently Rs 2,900-2950 per quintal. This compares to Rs 2,450-2,500 at the same time last year. In November, the annual consumer price inflation for wheat/whole flour and refined maida was 7.88%.


Vegetable oils saw an even higher inflation rate, 13.28%. According to the data from the department of consumer affairs, the modal retail price for packed palm oil in India is now Rs 143/kg. This is up from Rs 95 per kg a year earlier. Other oils have also increased in price: Soyabean oil (Rs. 154/kg versus Rs. 110/kg), Sunflower oil (Rs. 159/kg versus Rs. 115/kg) and Mustard (Rs. 176/kg versus Rs. 135).


What is the explanation for the inflation above?


Wheat: Limited domestic supply


In the last three crop years, India's wheat production has been below average. Stocks in godowns of the government have fallen to their lowest level since 2007-08, and domestic prices are still high despite an export prohibition since May 2022.


This time, Indian farmers have planted more wheat. This, combined with sufficient soil moisture and reservoir levels due to excess monsoon rainfall and also an expected La Nina (which would normally translate into a longer winter) has raised hope for a bumper crop in 2024-25.


The wheat planted in late October would not be ready to market until early April. The public distribution system requires about 1.5 million tonnes per month from the 20,6 million tonnes of wheat that were in public stocks at the beginning of December. In the period from January to March, the public can sell 7.1 mt in the open market. This is after subtracting the 7.46 mt normative minimum opening stock on April 1. These open market sales of government stocks in 2023-24 totaled 10.09 mt and helped to cool wheat prices.


The current prices may undermine government procurement. Open market prices are much higher than the official Minimum Support Price ( MSP). This may discourage farmers from selling to government agencies.


The Import Option


The international wheat price is currently low and imports are possible.


The price of Russian wheat in their origin ports is around $230, while the price for Australian wheat is $270. Addition of ocean freight and insurance costs of $40-45 for Russia and $30 for Australia brings their landed cost to India up to $270-300 a tonne, or Rs 2,290-2.545 a quintal. This is close to the MSP for a quintal of Rs 2,425


Even after incorporating port handling and bagging costs of Rs 170-180/quintal, and transport expenses of Rs 160-170/quintal, the cost for flour mills located in South India would be less than that of domestically-sourced grain.


There is a catch. Imports of wheat are subject to a 40% duty. Imports are only possible if the duty is zero. This might also be feasible politically, given that there will not be elections in the major wheat-producing States in 2025 – only Delhi and Bihar are scheduled to go to polls. Imports of 2-4 mt could help improve the domestic supply, and provide a buffer for any climate-induced damage to the crop from now until April.


Edible oils: Indonesian palm factor


Palm oil is the cheapest vegetable oil in nature. With 20-25 tonnes fresh fruit bunches, and a 20% extraction rate of crude palm oil from each hectare, 4-5 tons of CPO can be produced.


Soyabean, rapeseed/mustard and corn yields rarely exceed 3 to 3,5 tonnes and 2 to 2.5 tonnes per hectare. Even with a 20% recovery and 40% recovery their oil yields only 0.6-0.7 and 0.80-1 tonnes per ha respectively.


According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), palm oil will be the most widely produced vegetable oil in the world, with 76.26 million metric tons (mt) in 2023-24. This is ahead of soyabean oil (62.74mt), rapeseed oil (34.47mt), and sunflower oil (22.13mt).


CPO is usually cheaper than soyabean oil or sunflower oil because of higher yields. This was the case until August. In the last three to four months, we have seen a shift. The current landed price for imported CPO in India is $1,280 per ton, which is higher than the $1150 for crude soybean oil and $1,235 sunflower oil (table 2)


Indonesia's decision, to increase the blend of palm oil into diesel from 35% up to 40%, is believed to be the cause for the recent price spike. The top CPO producer in the world -- with 43 mt of CPO, followed by Malaysia (19.71mt) and Thailand (3.6 mt), plans to introduce so-called B40 Biodiesel this year.


According to USDA, Indonesia's biodiesel blend mandate - from 2.5% in 2008 up to 20% in 2018, 30% by 2020, 35% by 2023 and 40% by 2025 - will result in 14.7 million mt being diverted to domestic industrial use. This would reduce the country’s exportable surplus.


Can other oils replace the oil in?


The palm oil (mostly imported), accounts for 9-9.5 million metric tons of India's annual consumption of edible oils.


The lower availability of palm oil can be partially offset by increased imports from soyabean oil (mainly from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine) and sunflower oil (mainly in Russia and Romania). Imports of palm oil fell from 0.87 million tonnes in November 2023, to 0.84 million tonnes in November 2024. However, imports of soyabean and sunflower oil rose, respectively, from 0.13 mt up to 0.34 mt. In 2024-25 the global production of soyabean is expected to reach record levels, with Brazil, and the US, harvesting record crops.


There are limitations to the amount of palm oil that can be substituted. It's not a product that is marketed to consumers like sunflower, soyabean or mustard. It is preferred in fast-serve restaurants and bakeries, as well as industries such as snack foods, biscuits, and noodles, said Siraj Chandhry.


Palm oil has a neutral taste, is resistant to oxidation, and can be used for deep-frying. It's ideal for halwais, samosas, and pakodas. It also adds a flaky texture and extends the shelf life of baked goods.


Imports of crude palm, soybean and sunflower oils are currently subject to a duty of 27,5%. It remains to be determined if the government will make an exception for CPO.

Thursday, 12 December 2024

Arvind Panagariya: Internal policy barriers are a barrier to China plus one.



Arvind Pantagariya stated that while significant progress has been made, such as reforms to the Goods and Services Tax. (GST), more needs to be done on land and labour in order to encourage multinationals from leaving China.

Arvind Panagariya is the Chairman of the 16th Finance Commission. He has stated that India's internal policies are the main reason for its limited success in capturing the China plus one opportunity. India also has a huge advantage over countries like Vietnam and Thailand because of India's size and domestic supply chain.


The NITI Aayog Report noted that countries like Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia have emerged as the biggest beneficiaries of the China Plus One' Strategy. Factors such as lower tariffs, simpler tax laws and cheaper labour played a key role in increasing their export share.


Panagariya stated that India should not limit Chinese investments in certain sectors. However, it is important to consider the source of the investment.


"But the real reason for our disadvantage is policy." Land is incredibly expensive and employment of labor is incredibly difficult. We need to address these policy and internal policy barriers that limit flexibility. Vietnam, for example, is a relatively small country. As soon as you pass the 80-90 million inhabitants of the country, your wages will begin to rise. "In India, there is a supply of workers with various skills levels that can be maintained without a significant increase in wages," Panagariya said at the CII Global Economic Policy Summit.


Panagariya stated that although significant progress has been made, such as with the Goods and Services Tax reforms (GST), more needs to be done on land and labour in order to attract multinationals out of China. Panagariya stated that India is the only country capable of replacing China in 15 to 20 years.


Panagariya said the arguments about protectionism are false. He also argued that the argument that the world has become more protectionist and that automation would lead to a reshoring in manufacturing, which could result in India having fewer opportunities than China, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea etc. had, is flawed.


"It's true that protectionism has increased, but even if we take that into account, the world market today is probably more open than at any other time in history. The global merchandise export market is now worth $25 trillion. This is the peak since COVID. He said that the pre-COVID peak was $18 or $ 19 trillion.


He said that the export of services peaked at $7 trillion, up from $6 trillion before COVID.


"Our share of this huge market is less that 2 percent for exports of merchandise and less than 4 percent for services. We are still a tiny part. We can't say whether this trade will grow in the future, but we do know how small it is. China has a share of about 12-13 per cent. Panagariya stated that there are many opportunities for us on the global market.


Sunil Barthwal, Commerce Secretary, said that the world must avoid protectionism which increases trade barriers and impedes the flow of goods. He said that one should avoid a mercantilist mindset and not worry too much about imports and trade balance.


He said that if India's economy grows at 7 percent and the rest of the world grows at 3-3.5 percent, then India will need more imports. Let me also tell you the importance of imports to exports.


"As long we can improve our exports, we shouldn't be too concerned about imports. That is what I think we should avoid," he said.

Government's concern: Profits in the private sector are at a 15-year high, but salaries have stagnated



V Anantha Nageswaran, the Chief Economic Advisor, referred to this report at least twice in his corporate speeches. He suggested that India Inc. should look inward and do something to fix it.

Policymakers are concerned that the sharp drop in economic growth to 5.4% in July-September of this year, despite a 4x (four-fold) increase in profits in the last four-year period, could be one of the factors behind the slowdown in demand.


The report by the industry chamber FICCI, in collaboration with Quess Corp Ltd (a tech-enabled firm that has over 3,000 clients), which was prepared for the government, has sparked conversations between corporate boardrooms and key economic ministries. It showed the wage growth rates for six different sectors from 2019 to 2023 varied between 0.8 percent for engineering, manufacturing and process infrastructure (EMPI), and 5.4 percent for fast-moving consumers goods (FMCG).


The situation has gotten worse for workers in the formal sector due to a lack of growth in real wages, i.e. wage growth adjusted for inflation. Retail inflation increased by 4.8 percent, 6.2 percent, 5.5%, 6.7%, and 5.4 percent over the five-year period from 2019-20 to 2023-24.


V Anantha Nageswaran, the Chief Economic Advisor, referred to this report at least twice in his corporate speeches. He suggested that India Inc. should look inward and do something to fix it.


According to government sources, the subdued consumer spending in urban areas is due in part to low income levels. Sources in the government said that the consumption increased post-Covid due to pent-up demands, but wage growth was slower, which has raised concerns about the full recovery of the economy to its pre-Covid phase.


The FICCI/Quess results are not public but the newspaper has accessed them. They show that, for the EMPI Sector, the CAGR for wages between 2019 and 23 was the lowest at only 0.8%.


The FMCG sector had the highest growth rate at 5.4%. In BFSI (banking and financial services, insurance), the wage growth rate was 2.8% during 2019-23. Retail saw a 3.7% increase, IT had a 4.0% rise, and logistics saw 4.24%.


The FMCG sector had the lowest average wage at Rs 19,023 and the IT sector the highest at Rs 49 076 in 2023.


Nageswaran stated that at Assocham’s Bharat@100 Summit, on December 5, there must be a better balanced between the incomes going to the capital as profits and the incomes going to the workers as wages. Without that, the demand for corporate products will be insufficient. He said that not paying employees or not hiring enough workers would end up damaging the corporate sector.


Nageswaran noted that the profitability of corporations was at its highest level in 15 years by March 2024.


"The previous record was 5,2% of GDP in profit after taxes, which occurred in March 2008. This was the boom period. In a difficult global environment, and after Covid... it is amazing that we can get to 4,8% in 2024. 2008 was a much more favourable global growth environment. Profitability growth is therefore very impressive. He said that the growth of profits in Indian corporations has been four times in the past four years.


Nageswaran stated that the staff costs of listed Indian companies have been decreasing, whether they are IT firms or other general businesses. "In other words the growth of compensation for employees is becoming weaker. "If you remove the compensation for managers, then it will be even worse," he said.


The average gross salary was calculated in the survey based on the sum of the salaries of all employees working across various job roles within a certain sector, divided by the number of employees. The survey stated that wage growth was indicative, not definitive. This is because salaries vary based on the job role. Some job roles receive higher wages than others.


It is reported that the concern about low wages has been raised in many internal government discussions.


An analyst at India Inc., who knows about the government's discussions, says that India will see an increase of inequality in this stage of macroeconomic development.


"The pandemic accentuated the issue; we are 7% behind the growth trajectory before the pandemic. You cannot ignore the fact that India's workforce is growing at a rapid pace. Our economy is a year behind schedule, but we have an extra year of work," said the unnamed analyst.


The bargaining power of the labour force is reduced because there is an excess of labour relative to capital. The analyst said that slow wages growth was inevitable. Should Corporate India take action? Analyst: "In this macro-environment, this is what ...," will happen.


Experts have suggested that raising productivity would be the answer to boosting growth. "There's no single answer. As an investor I need growth. If there is no return, people won't invest or take risks. I don't think paying more is the answer, but rather increasing productivity. Even if the cost is higher, a high level of productivity will make it cheaper. India's productivity is low and we are lagging behind our global counterparts. "The way to make people wealthy is to increase productivity, and that will also help growth," said Nilesh Sha, MD of Kotak Mahindra AMC.


Several in the industry believe that the issue of slow wage growth is more of a concern for the informal sector than the formal sector. Naushad Forbes said that the data presented is dependent on which period was selected. It will show a different picture if it starts with the Covid period. This is because salaries decreased and then increased. It depends on where you begin."


"I don't think there is a problem in the formal sector, as companies have been aiming for salary increases of 5-10% per year for several years." It is the informal sector that poses the greatest challenge. The number of jobs created and the employment generated is also more important. "I think that there should be more focus on formalising the workforce and on how to make employment-generating sectors like textiles, tourism, flourish," said he.

Retail inflation eased significantly and encouraged hopes of rate cuts coming soon - creating greater optimism about rate decreases in February.



Data released Thursday by the National Statistics Office (NSO) indicated that retail inflation dropped to its lowest rate since September at 5.48 percent, after reaching its 14 month peak of 6.21 percent in October due to reduced prices for foods such as vegetables.


Food inflation measured by Consumer Food Price Index, (CFPI), saw its rate fall from double-digit levels and an all-time 15 month high of 10.87 percent in October to 9.04 percent in November.


NSO also released data showing India's industrial output measured by the Index of Industrial Production had seen an upswing from September's 3.1 per cent to 3.5% growth over November due to an improvement in manufacturing, mining and electricity sectors.


Consumer Price Index (Combined) inflation rates dropped below the upper limit of RBI's midterm inflation goal in November after surpassing 6 per cent the month prior, yet still exceeded its baseline level by over three percentage points for another consecutive monthly.


Experts noted that with inflation moderated, new RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra who assumed office on Wednesday will have greater room to cut rates at February's Monetary Meeting amid fears over slowing economic growth.


If inflation moderates in the coming months, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) can reduce its policy rate accordingly. We anticipate that headline inflation rate will fall below 5% by Q4 of FY25 due to reduced food inflation; then MPC could consider cutting its policy rate by 25 bp at February meeting (we forecast 50-75 basis point reduction by 2025), said Rajani Sinha of CareEdge Ratings.


Food and beverage items comprise 45.86% of the CPI (Combined), accounting for an inflation rate in November of 8.200% - down from 9.69% in October. Vegetable inflation decreased to 29.33 percent while fruits decreased from 8.43 points in earlier months to 7.68.


Cereal inflation dropped slightly to 6.888% in November from 6.94% in October; pulse inflation decreased to 5.41% from 7.43%. Oils and fats inflation reached double-digit levels of 13.28 percent versus 9.51 percent seen previously, while housing inflation rates marginally rose from 2.81 to 2.87 percent during November.


Miscellaneous services inflation has also eased off slightly from 4.32 to 4.26 percent in November, but 10.42 percent personal care and effect inflation remains double-digits. Meanwhile, core inflation -- including non-food and non-fuel index components such as core inflation rate -- remained nearly constant at 3.6% versus 3.7% seen previously.


Experts stated that having a higher base will help lower inflation rates in the future, with sowing progress being critical in controlling it. Furthermore, experts will closely track edible oil inflation due to rising global prices and recent increases in import duty.


Paras Jassir, Senior Economist with India Ratings & Research stated, "we anticipate inflation to decrease by approximately 5 percent by December 2024 if the base effect for pulses, fruit and vegetables increases," though edible oils, personal care & effects products or any other challenges may remain."


Inflation data by region revealed rural inflation to have declined to 5.95 percent from 6.68 percent in October and urban inflation to have moderated from 5.62 to 4.83 percent; food inflation rates saw a marked reduction from 10.69% to 9.10% across both areas, while urban areas experienced rates as low as 8.74% - both reductions compared with rates as high as 11.09% seen previously.


Seven out of the 22 states/Union Territories with inflation rates above the headline rate (5.48%) have inflation rates above this benchmark; Chhattisgarh had the highest inflation rate (8.39%) followed by Bihar (7.55%) and Odisha(6.78%). Delhi experienced 2.65 percent.


"State-level inflation figures vary considerably, from 7.6 percent in Bihar to 2.7% in Delhi with food prices being more expensive in these states; Odisha Madhya Pradesh Kerala and Bihar also recorded over-6% inflation," stated Madan Sabnavis of Bank of Baroda.


India's industrial output saw an uptick of 3.5% compared to 3.1% the prior month, as industrial growth between April and October totalled 4.0%, down from 7.0% previously.


The manufacturing sector, comprising 776.6% of IIP weight, experienced an increase of 4.1 percent versus 3.9 percent in September and 10.6 percentage points during the previous period. Mining production increased to 0.9 percent versus 0.2 percent growth seen previously while electricity output also saw growth at 2 percent versus an increase of 0.5 percent seen previously - still lower than its 20.4 growth during previous year period.


According to use-based classification, primary goods production increased 2.6% versus 1.8% in September; capital goods investment sentiment index fell from 3.6% in September to 3.16% in October; this compares with 36% growth seen previously and 21.7% year over year growth rate for September.


On the consumption goods front, both consumer durables (consumer durables) and non-durables (non-durables) output experienced strong increases despite starting from high bases. Consumer durables output, which measures demand for consumption goods, increased by 5.9 per cent year-on-year compared to September levels (5.65 percent growth).


Consumer non-durables production increased by 2.7% year over year in October compared to 2.27 in September; during the same month last year it had grown 9.3%.


"The acceleration in consumer-goods production growth due to festive demands in October 2024 (6.2%) despite higher prices is an encouraging indicator for consumption demand in an economy. Rural real wages have seen steady improvements for some time now and these contributions are gradually driving an increase in consumption demand," Jasrai commented. Rabi sowing prospects could help maintain consumption demand well into 2HFY25," according to Jasrai.

Gukesh's youngest world chess champion record: How he beat Garry Kasparov



Gukesh became the youngest World Champion in history after beating Ding Liren over 14 games in the World Chess Championship in Singapore.

D Gukesh, for the first time in nearly three weeks acted like a teenager. The teenager from Chennai, overwhelmed by the weight and intensity of the moment began to cry at the chessboard.


You don't become a world champion every day. You don't become the youngest World Champion in history every day. Gukesh did just that after beating Ding Liren over 14 games in the World Chess Championship in Singapore.


The succession of world chess champs, which began in 1886 with 17 men ascending to the throne, has never included a teenager.


Garry Kasparov, who was 22 years old, six months, and 27 days, before Gukesh became the youngest world champion, held that title. Magnus Carlsen was 22 years old, 11 months, and 24 days in 2013 when he became the first world champion.


Gukesh described the moment as "probably the best of my life" when his opponent made a mistake in the 55th game move on Thursday. This mistake opened the way for his ascent. He said, "I have dreamed about this moment since I began playing chess. I've been living it for more than ten years."


It looked as if the game was going to end in a tie. Ding's final line of defense was wiped out by a miscalculated rook push (55.Rf2), resulting in an inevitable checkmate. Ding lost the game, match, and crown because of a mistimed move.


At that point, both players had fought for more than four hours. Gukesh's slight advantage was due to the fact that he had three pawns compared to Ding’s two. He also had an extra hour of savings than his opponent. Gukesh had little to play for, other than hope. The 55th move changed all that.


Gukesh's face, which was previously inscrutable, erupted into a smile when he spotted the move.


Ding has been sneaking glances at Gukesh since the championship started on November 25. He was trying to read his emotions. Gukesh gave Ding little, and certainly no expressions that revealed his thoughts.


All of it came out after he won the world championship. Even empathy.


"I want to start by talking about my opponent before I do anything else." Ding Liren, we all know him. It is clear that he has been one the greatest players of all time for many years. The pressure he was under and the fight he put up at the world championship shows how true a champion he really is. Gukesh: "I'm sorry for Ding, his team and myself. I want to thank him for the show he put on."


Ding spoke earlier about his depression and lack of confidence on the board.


Gukesh stated that "no matter what anyone says about Ding, he is a true world champion." He was referring to the predictions of former world champions such as Magnus Carlsen, and elite Grandmasters such as Hikaru Nakamura, that the Indian would commit a "massacre", or that the Chinese GM's game would collapse.


Ding was not defeated, but did make three errors that led to three losses. The outgoing world champion also showed the same graciousness in defeat. It's only fair that I lose, considering my lucky escape from yesterday's match. Ding left the press conference saying, "I have no regrets."


Gukesh applauded Ding as he walked away, and only sat down after the Chinese left. He was not going to let his manners slip just because he won.


Gukesh waited at the chessboard for about 30 minutes after his opponent gave up, and he rearranged the board, even though he was emotional.


Gukesh won because he was able to fight. Some grandmasters might have taken a draw and fought the tie tomorrow.


Gukesh, who was competing in the World Chess Championships 2024, was unwilling to accept a draw for the third consecutive time, even though a victory was unlikely. This strategy failed to work in two previous games. It made him world champion on Thursday.


Since a while, the world of chess has been preparing for an era of Indian chess prodigies. From the Candidates tournament this year where an unprecedented number Indian players qualified, to the two gold medals won by the Indian teams in the Budapest Chess Olympiad. Kasparov had called it "Indian earthquake" in chess.


Sunday, 24 November 2024

Allu Arjun remembers being jobless following his debut. Pushpa 2 Director Sukumar saved him, saying: "No one offered me an offer of a film."



Two young filmmakers decided to collaborate 20 years ago to create a movie. One was a first-time director. One actor had only appeared in one film. Arya was the film. The blockbuster success that director Sukumar’s debut film enjoyed and Allu Arjun’s second film achieved was legendary. But this combination continued to produce superhits, each one growing in size and success. They reunited in 2009 for Arya 2 after Arya (2004). In 2021 they worked together on Pushpa and are now back for Pushpa 2. Allu Arjun, Sukumar and Fahadh seem to enjoy hunting together.


Allu Arjun talked fondly at the pre-release in Chennai about their relationship, which has grown over the last two decades. The Pushpa actor revealed in a very heartfelt moment that Sukumar gave his career the much-needed boost it needed. "I made my lead acting debut with Raghavendra rao garu's Gangotri. Allu Arjun said, "He delivered a superhit but I did not deliver as an actor." He then revealed that he had no work for the following year. "After the release of my film, no one wanted to work with me. Arya was offered to me by a new filmmaker. Since then, there has been no turning back."


Allu Arjun's speech, which would have dispelled any speculations that things weren't as gung-ho with the actor and filmmaker, was full of praise for Sukumar. Sukumar was the person he cited as having the greatest impact on his life when he looked back at his career. He is still working on the post-production. His absence is more noticeable than his presence. I miss you, Sukku. "We are all in it together."


The makers of Pushpa 2 launched kissik during the event. This is a dance number that features Sreeleela and Allu Arjun for the very first time. Rashmika, Devi Sri Prasad, and Arjun were also present at the event.


Pushpa 2 Budget

Pushpa 2, The Rule, was made on a high Budget between Rs 400 and 500 crore. The makers are confident it will be Allu Arjun’s first entry into the Rs 1,000 crore club. This film is one of the most costly Indian films.


Pushpa 2, Cast and Crew

In the sequel, Fahadh Faasil and Sunil will return, as well as Anasuya Bhardwaj. Ajay Ghosh is also returning, along with Brahmaji Dhananjaya Mime Gopi, Ajay Prathap Brahmaji Bhardwaj. Jagapathi has joined the sequel. Naveen Nooli will edit The Rule with cinematography by Miroslaw Kuba Brozek.


Pushpa 2, Release Date

Pushpa 2: The Rule is set to be released worldwide on 5 December, and will likely have the largest release. The film will be available in Telugu as well as Tamil, Malayalam and Hindi.

Median estimates of 12 economists: 'Weak urban consumption and weak industrial activity may drag down Q2 GDP by 6.5%.'



The National Statistical Office is expected to release the GDP data for July-September on November 29, at 1600 IST. Estimates of GDP growth for July-September range from 6.2 to 6.99 per cent.

The slow pace of industrial growth in July-September was likely due to the prolonged rains, especially in the manufacturing, mining, and electricity sectors. This, combined with tepid consumer growth in urban areas has led to a lower economic growth rate. According to the median estimate of 12 economists, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which will be released Friday, growth is expected to slow down in Q2 from 6.7% in April-June, and 8.1% a year earlier, to a six quarter low of 6.5 %.


Capital expenditures have remained lower than the levels of the previous year for both the states and the Centre. This has added to concerns about a slowdown in growth. The agricultural sector is seen as the brightest spot among all sectors with good kharif production estimates and a rebound in rural demand.


We expect agriculture GDP will rise to a 6-quarter-high of 6.0 percent, due to elevated kharif production estimates. According to IIP data, industrial growth is slowing down, especially in mining, electricity and gas. Manufacturing GDP may also be moving sideways, registering a growth of 6.0 percent YoY. Construction growth will likely drop to 6.0 percent from 10.5 percent YoY in Q2 24 as steel production growth declines and cement grows slightly.


The growth of services is expected to slow down largely because of a decline in credit growth. This has been slowed considerably in the last few months," Rahul Bjoria said, India and ASEAN economic analyst at Bank of America.


The National Statistical Office is expected to release the GDP data for July-September on November 29, at 1600 IST. Estimates of GDP growth for July-September range from 6.2 to 6.99 per cent.


Sonal Varma is Nomura's Chief Economist for India and Asia Ex-Japan. She said that a sharper decline in exports as opposed to imports also weighs on Q2 growth. The drag is estimated at 1.1 percentage points, compared with 0.7 percentage points in Q1.


On the supply side, GVA growth is expected to slow to 6.8% YoY from 6.8% in Q1, as growth in the construction and industrial sectors eases. We expect that agricultural growth will pick up. "Financial and real estate" and "professional services" will continue to grow strongly. And we are working to build in a recovery for the "trade, hotel, transport, and communication" sector, which was previously lagging. We believe India is in a cyclical slowdown and see increasing downside risks in our GDP baseline projections for FY25 (6.8% YoY) and FY26 (6.8% YoY).


Reserve Bank of India has projected GDP growth rates for FY25 and FY26 at 7.2% and 7.1% respectively. Ajay Ajay Seth, Economic Affairs secretary, said last week that there was "no significant risk" of the 6.5-7 percent growth projection in the current financial year 2024-25 as detailed in Economic Survey despite the likely slowdown for the September quarter.


Future Growth Prospects

The slow pace of capital expenditure by the states and the Centre is a major concern. However, the rural demand and the agricultural growth are expected to support growth in the future. Capex will likely fall short of the Rs 11.11 lakh target for FY25. According to rough estimates, the Centre's capex may be about Rs 55.555 crore below the target. In the second half, the Centre will need to increase its capex by 52% to reach the FY25 Budget Target of Rs 11,11 lakh crore. The second half is a challenge for the Centre, as it will have to increase its capex by 52 per cent in order to reach the FY25 budget target of Rs 11.11 lakh crore.


Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth: 'No significant downside risk' to growth despite likely slowdown in Sept quarter


In a recent note, HDFC Bank Treasury Research stated that economic indicators in October have already shown a positive change in the overall economy. This includes improvements in multiple sectors, including manufacturing and service Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI), as well as GST collections, toll revenue, and e-way bills. It said that the demand-side dynamics showed rural demand now starting to surpass urban demand. We have seen a dramatic increase in agriculture and services. This bodes well for future growth. Other sectors, except for oil and gas, have done better. GST (Goods & Services Tax) and automobile sales show that consumption has increased. The inflation should also be expected to decrease from December. Madan Sabnavis is the chief economist at Bank of Baroda. He estimates that FY25 GDP will grow by 7.3-7.4 percent.


Rajani Sinha is the chief economist at CareEdge Ratings. She said that a rebound in government spending will boost growth potential for H2. This recovery will support both the capex demand and private consumption. The Rabi sowing season is expected to be successful as reservoir levels are still comfortable in many regions. "A good kharif harvest, coupled with an improved outlook for rabi sowing bodes well for rural demand," Sinha said.

Bitcoin ride Trump Wave to Record Highs and Focus on $100,000 On Saturday,


Bitcoin made another record high and set its sights on breaking $100k barrier, likely fuelled by an optimistic view about increased regulatory support under Trump administration.

Bitcoin's value has surged over two-thirds since President-elect Trump's victory on November 5, when several pro-crypto lawmakers were elected into Congress.


On Friday, however, cryptocurrency gains were more moderate. Bitcoin, having recently hit a new record high of $99,000, gained only 0.5 percent on the day - it is currently trading around $98,500.


Updated November 22 at 22:39 IST.


Bitcoin stands out among assets seen as benefitting or losing from President Donald Trump's policies, commonly known as "Trump Trades." (Reuters Photo).


Bitcoin's value has seen an astonishing 75-percent surge this year and 45 percent since Donald Trump won election and crypto-friendly lawmakers were elected into Congress on November 5.


On Friday, however, cryptocurrency experienced more moderate gains. Bitcoin had just hit an all-time record high of $99,000 but has since only managed to gain 0.5% - it currently trades at around $98,500.


Bitcoin could see its highest month since February with gains expected of 10% or more over three consecutive weeks.


Bitcoin as a Trump Trade exceptie Due to the widespread adoption of President Donald Trump's policies, Bitcoin has emerged as one of the more significant winners of so-called Trump Trades -- assets perceived to either gain or lose due to his policies.


Since its creation, 16 years ago, cryptocurrency has also been on the cusp of mainstream adoption.


Shane Oliver is Chief Economist and Investment Strategy Head at AMP Sydney.


As both an investor and economist, I find it challenging to value this stock; anyone could speculate. At present, momentum seems positive.


Bitcoin has experienced an astounding 130% gain this year.


President-elect Trump championed digital assets during his presidential campaign and pledged to make America "the crypto capital of the world", creating a national bitcoin reserve.


Gary Gensler announced Thursday that he will leave his position as chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission when Donald Trump takes office, signalling an end to the increased scrutiny by SEC over crypto investments.


Under Gensler, the SEC filed lawsuits against Coinbase, Kraken and Binance alleging they had breached SEC regulations by failing to register with them. All three companies denied these allegations in court proceedings and remain active participants in fighting them off.


Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) boost the market Bitcoin ETFs were approved for listing in January in the US, providing a boost for investors.


The SEC has long tried to prevent ETFs from investing in bitcoin due to investor protection concerns; however, such products have allowed more investors - including institutional ones - to gain exposure to this asset class.


Since November's US presidential election, more than $4 billion worth of bitcoin ETFs listed on US exchanges has been invested.


Crypto stocks listed in the US that had seen their prices surge over recent days appeared to have levelled off on Friday.


People continued trading. Microstratgy, a software firm which raised money to purchase bitcoin and is an influential owner, experienced an increase of 2.6% during pre-market trading.

Since Oct, foreign investors have pulled out Rs 1.55 lakh crore from the Indian stock market;




According to data from exchanges, FPIs sold equity worth Rs 41,872 Crore through exchanges, after selling Rs 1,13 858 crore in equity in October.


The trend of FPIs purchasing through primary markets continued in November, with Rs 15,339 billion worth of purchases.


Exchange data shows that the total FPI sales through exchanges from October 1 to November 23 amounted to Rs 1,55,730 Crore.


Analysts said that this is the type of selling which occurs in an annual period when FPIs have a selling mode.


On November 22, the Sensex jumped 1,961 points or 2.54 per cent to 79117.11 and FPIs only pulled out Rs 1,278 crore.


Domestic institutional investors (DIIs), however, have invested Rs 37 559 crore so far in November and Rs 107 254 crore this October.


The FY25 earnings are in play: 'Sell India and buy China'

Three factors mainly led to the massive selling of FPIs. First, the "Sell India and Buy China" trade. Two concerns about FY25 earnings. Three, the Trump trade. Of the three, K Vijayakumar said, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services.


Trump's trade is also on its last legs, as valuations in the US have reached high levels.


The FPI sales in India are likely to slow down soon. The valuations of Indian large cap companies have also fallen from their elevated levels. FPIs are buying IT stocks, which has given IT stocks a greater degree of resilience. "Banking stocks have been resilient, despite FPI sales. This is mainly because DII bought," he said.


A JM Financial report indicates that the Republican Party and Donald Trump have taken control of all three branches of US government.


We believe Trump's plans to lower corporate taxes, increase import tariffs and deport illegal immigrants will lead to growth in the US, higher prices and higher interest rates. The report suggested that this could tempt FPIs into taking at least a portion of their funds to the US.


"FPIs continue to evaluate every country. We would be wrong to assume that they would always invest in India. FPIs may consider other markets if they become more attractive in terms of valuation. There are also very few FPIs that invest in one country. They are always reallocating their funds. FPIs are like domestic investors, who switch between companies and stocks.


"Considering where India is now, I don’t think this is a concern that we should be having." He said that Japan has mandated a few investments and is showing more interest than ever in India.



In addition to giving greater operational flexibility to Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs), the Reserve Bank of India and the Securities and Exchange Board of India have recently allowed FPIs the ability to classify equity shares in excess of 10% in Indian companies under the heading of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), which will allow for a smoother and more efficient flow of foreign investment.


The RBI instructed FPIs that they must obtain the necessary approvals and consent from the invested companies if their equity holdings exceed the prescribed limits. They also reclassify these holdings as FDI.


According to the Foreign Exchange Management Non-Debt Instruments Rules for 2019, the investment made by a FPI must be less than 10% of the total paid up equity capital, on a fully-diluted basis.


The RBI notification stated that any FPI who invests in excess of the prescribed limits will have the option to divest their holdings, or reclassify them as FDI, within five business days of the settlement date of the trades that caused the breach.

 


Wednesday, 20 November 2024

Fareed Zakaria, CNN host and Fareed Zakaria, CNN news on Trump's pledge to increase tariffs on Chinese imports



Fareed Zakaria, speaking at the Express Adda, in Mumbai, Monday, said that while China would be hit particularly hard by the tariffs everyone else, including India could face them. It may also be the best time for India start negotiations on an Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the US.

Fareed Zakaria, political analyst and CNN host, says that the pledge of Donald Trump to levy high taxes on all Chinese imports during his term is a golden chance for India.


Zakaria, speaking at the Express Adda on Monday in Mumbai, said that while China would be hit particularly hard by tariffs, everyone else, including India could face them. It may also be the best time for India start negotiations with the US about a Free Trade Agreement.


He spoke with Anant Goenka - Executive Director of The Indian Express group - and Shubhajit Roy – Diplomatic Editor at The Indian Express.


Zakaria responded, "India has a golden chance here." When asked about the impact of Trump's 10 percent tariff on all US imports in India, and how this will affect future India-US relations, Zakaria replied, "There are no limits to what Trump can do. Trump has set tariffs of 10 percent across the board and 60 percent on China. "I think he's saying, don’t worry about numbers. China will be hit particularly hard by tariffs but everyone else will have to face them."


"If you are familiar with Trump, then you must assume that this is an offer to negotiate," he said. "This is an opening salvo." India should try to negotiate bilateral trade deals with Trump. It's an opportunity to create a greater sense of regularity and create a trade corridor between the US and India. If India is forced to reduce its tariffs as a result of this, it will be very beneficial for India.


Zakaria called India the "most protectionist large economy" in the world. "Most of India's protectionism is because large Indian conglomerates, industries and companies do not want to compete."


"I believe the age of multilateral trading is over. "You will have bilateral trade agreements, and India is a great candidate to make one," said he. "And if India competes for the US market with a China which has 60% tariffs, then it will be in a much better position."


Zakaria, when asked about India’s multi-aligned policy, which allows it to align or do business with anyone it chooses without facing the sanctions that are usually associated with this, said that it was a mistake. India would gain more if it did not play footsie with everyone, and instead aligned itself with forces of democracy, and liberalism.


The Americans are very understanding about India's foreign policies. India can gain more from a political, moral and strategic perspective by aligning with forces such as democracy, openness and liberalism. "India will grow much faster if it is in close contact with the West's most advanced economic and technological centres," said the expert.


He said that India has a lot of work to do, given its $2,700 GDP per capita, as compared to the United States which has $65,000. "India does not have the same technology companies as China, or even the US. India must move forward in technology and education, and collaborate with the new global supply chain. This is more likely to occur with the West. Do you think that the Chinese will let Indians join a Chinese global supply network? It will never happen."


"The Russians do not have a global high-tech supply chain." India, from an egocentric point of view should stop playing footsie and say loudly that we are a democratic country, a part of a free world and we want stability and openness in the world. "We believe in the norms and values that define this global community, and we will benefit economically and politically," said he.


He acknowledged that China was the strategic glue in the Indo-US relation, but he also said that the glue is based on values, and India and America have deep shared values.


"India is the pro-American nation in the entire world." According to opinion polls conducted in India, 75% of Indians are positive about America. This is higher than Israel or Poland, the two other countries. "Every Indian is trying hard to get a student visa to attend an American university; nobody's lining up for Beijing or Moscow," said he.


He said Trump always had a "favourable attitude toward India... a favourable approach towards the BJP, and towards Modi. They are in a great position on multiple levels. He will push them to do more with trade.


Zakaria is a New York-based journalist and author who was a guest on Express e.Adda's show in January 2021. He has written Age of Revolutions (2024), Ten Lessons for a Post-Pandemic World (2010), The Post-American World (2007), and The Future of Freedom (2007), amongst other books.


Zakaria was asked what the most important questions he would ask Prime Minister Narendra modi if Modi were to appear on his show. He replied: "What's the best way for India to maintain and flourish its deeply pluralistic nature? India is a nation that is composed of many castes tribes religions ethnicities languages? Does he follow policies that allow this pluralism flourish?